Short-term is usually measured in 5 minutes, 5 hours, 5 days, etc.
But if you’re going to make forecasts with probabilities, you should be measuring them over a longer time period. A month is longer than a week, and should be viewed as a long-term period. However, if you’re planning to do a forecast with probabilities, you should be using some sort of weighted average.
The most important part of a forecast is the probability, and this has to be calculated over a longer time period. This is a great way to keep things from getting too subjective. For example, a forecast of how many people are going to die in the next month or year has a higher probability of being wrong than the actual number of deaths, because the actual number of deaths is not so clear-cut.
Using a weighted average is the most common method used in business forecasting. In fact, the only business that I know of that uses a weighted average is the company I work for, because I have an annual forecast of the number of employees. We use a weighted average because we don’t want to base our forecast on months like “we’ll get 10 new hires in March” and “we’ll get 50 new hires in April.
I have to admit that my company has actually had to use a weighted average before, but this is different. We use it because it makes life easier when we have to compare different forecasts all the time.
So what’s the difference? Well, how do you compare two forecasts. For example, if one company says that they plan to hire 100 new employees and another says that they plan to hire 50 new employees in the first half of the year, they will look at a weighted average that includes the two forecasts.
I’m not sure if this is a valid use of the weighted average when applied to a forecasting company, but it’s certainly a great tool for comparing one company’s forecast with another company’s forecast. The real trick is that the weights are applied to different forecasts of the same company. So if you look at the first company’s forecast, they will use a weight of 0.5 (or 50%).
The weighted average is a way to take two forecasts and use one weight for each. The resulting sum of those two weights will be what we call the short-term forecast.
The weighted average has been around for a while. So it’s not as surprising that someone would use it. The problem is that it’s often used to compare companies with disparate forecasts for the same period. For instance, if you compare the forecasts of the same company for a week, you might see a difference of about 2.5% – 5%. There’s really no reason to do that and it gets a little silly. A better way to compare forecasting company forecasts is to compare their averages.
This is the way that most investors and analysts do business. They use an average that is weighted by a measure of the companies performance. This is a good way to compare the forecast of a company for a period of time.